Foreign malign influence in the U.S. presidential election got off to a slower start than in 2016 and 2020 due to the less contested primary season. Russian efforts are focused on undermining U.S. support for Ukraine while China seeks to exploit societal polarization and diminish faith in U.S. democratic systems.
Additionally, fears that sophisticated AI deepfake videos would succeed in voter manipulation have not yet been borne out but simpler “shallow” AI-enhanced and AI audio fake content will likely have more success. These insights and analysis are contained in the second Microsoft Threat Intelligence Election Report published today.
Russian influence operations (IO) have picked up steam in the past two months. The Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) has tracked at least 70 Russian actors engaged in Ukraine-focused disinformation, using traditional and social media and a mix of covert and overt campaigns.
For example, the actor Microsoft tracks as Storm-1516, has successfully laundered anti-Ukraine narratives into U.S. audiences using a consistent pattern across multiple languages. Typically, this group follows a three-stage process: