Historically, these two surveys confirm one another except when unusual growth is seen. The household survey had been diverging from the employer survey by larger and larger numbers over the past year.
This divergence probably indicates exceptional growth in small business activity and among new entrepreneurs not adequately represented in the employer survey. This could be tied to the sharp growth in manufacturing jobs with 50,000 new workers added last month as reported by employers.
Manufacturing is what is known as a “cluster economy” in which the “finished product job” tends to support numerous other jobs that are somewhat off the grid. These can be everything from the small machine shop that does tool and die work, or a specialized factory with a few employees that makes small parts that don’t justify a major factory operation, and all manner of service and support jobs.
It can’t be stressed enough how important this kind of up tick in jobs in mid-winter really is. An economy has momentum, like a ship rising to meet the crashing waves or the wreck being driven to the bottom by them. Currently, the ship of the economy is rising despite all efforts from the Republicans to drill holes in its hull. Red State Republicans eliminated 14,000 teachers, firefighters, police and highway maintenance workers just last month, crippling the recovery of their own states, and putting a drag on the national economy.
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